A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
